In the 1940s and 1950s of my youth, I was obsessed with the world of motion and speed. In my imagination, I relived the German Grands Prix of the1930s with the silver Auto Unions and white Mercedes battling each other for dominance. For the glimpse of an express locomotive, belching smoke and steam as it thundered past, I would stand for ages next to my local railway line. I knew the names and technicalities of the many motorcycles and cars of the period.
Perhaps the internet, the computer and the smartphone have created a massive social revolution, but daily life in the city of today is remarkably similar to that of the decades between the 1950s and 1960s.
But even more exciting were visions of the future – the science fiction imagery of films and schoolboy magazines –atomic-powered airliners, flying cars and monorails that whizzed overhead, connecting sky-high towers. How does that past of 75 years ago and its predictions for the future compare with the present? And what might that comparison tell us about our vision for the future? First, the cars and motorcycles of three-quarters of a century ago are remarkably similar to those of today –except that they all now look boringly alike. We currently face the prospect of a massive electrification of vehicles, which is a cyclic return to the beginning of the 20th century when the majority of cars were battery powered.
True to predictions, the skyscrapers of today are taller and slimmer but the connecting monorails have never appeared (even though they are now available and competitive). The jetliners of today are affordable to all, unlike their elitist forebears, but apart from being bigger they are remarkably similar in appearance. The Flying Wing, like the supersonic Concorde, came and went and both may be reborn in our future – but their shapes will likely be familiar. The hardware of space from Dan Dare (of Eagle magazine fame), through NASA to SpaceX, has hardly changed in appearance. The digital gadgetry of devices that we take for granted today was anticipated in films and renderings from the 1960s. Perhaps the internet, the computer and the smartphone have created a massive social revolution, but daily life in the city of today is remarkably similar to that of the decades between the 1950s and 1960s.
All of this might suggest the proposition that to look far ahead to the future, we should first look far back to our past. Looking back to the past of the electric car, it was first unveiled in 1888 and ten years later a rocket-shaped version broke the speed barrier of 100 kilometres per hour. Before the end of the century, Ferdinand Porsche and Ludwig Lohner made the first in-hub electric wheel. Three-quarters of a century later, this was recreated by Boeing and General Motors for NASA’s Lunar Rover for mobility on the moon.
If electric vehicles have their roots in the past, the same can be said for their potential partner –autonomous driving. Consider this text from one of my favourite images: “One day your car may speed along an electric super-highway, its speed and steering automatically controlled by electronic devices embedded in the road. Highways will be made safe – by electricity! No traffic jams... no collisions...no driver fatigue.” It was written for an American power company advert in 1957.
Similarly looking far back to the past of the early airports, they were always close to the city centres – a part of the urban fabric. As the aircraft grew larger, they demanded longer runways, and as passenger volumes increased, terminals needed more space. The consequences of size and environmental impact saw the airport banished far from the city centre. This pattern repeated across the globe – the relocation of Hong Kong’s Kai Tak to an island in the South China Sea is a prime example. The knock-on effect of this suburbanisation of the airport is an accumulation of associated facilities such as hotels and leisure centres that cluster around the passenger and larger terminals. The results a somewhat chaotic urbanity. A glimpse of the future is afforded by one of the largest airports currently in the design phase for Riyadh, which is planned to handle 185 million passengers per year by 2050.
If that travel becomes faster or cheaper, the tendency is to travel further – for example accepting a longer commute or choosing a more distant shopping or holiday destination.
Here the concept of the airport has come full circle, almost back to its early roots, planned as an urban airport. When seen from the air it resembles a walled city from the past – set in the desert with a green oasis meandering through it. Car-free, pedestrian-friendly and lush with vegetation, it could have many of the qualities of the city of the future. The flying cars in those science fiction images from the past have since made a guest appearance with James Bond in The Man with the Golden Gun but are more likely to end up in the future as drones. The trend to autonomy, which we have seen in the revolution of telecommunications, is likely to inform mobility beyond the autonomous vehicles that we explored earlier. For example, the lack of transport infrastructure in Africa has led to the successful adoption of drones to deliver medical supplies. Even if a network of roads did exist, the drone would be cheaper and faster. One consequence is that the system is now being considered for use by the National Health Service in the United Kingdom.
Moving to the scale of a building, I am involved in a project for the Hospital of the Future where the internal structure will provide free ways for fleets of drones to move drugs and supplies more swiftly and efficiently than by humans. Typically, most people in America currently spendbetween an hour to one hour and 20 minutes per day on personal travel, which accounts for 16 to 20 percent of their household budgets. If that travel becomes faster or cheaper, the tendency is to travel further – for example accepting a longer commute or choosing a more distant shopping or holiday destination.
These statistics reflect a car-borne society and the dominance of urban sprawl. They are also reflected in high energy consumption and a corresponding carbon footprint. By comparison, recent research shows how Manhattan as a compact, high-density walkable city has a dramatically lower carbon impact.
New York is a high-rise example, but this kind of sustainable city can also be medium-rise such as Boston in the United States or London, Paris and Copenhagen in Europe. Aside from their sustainability, such cities are always in the top ten for quality of life in all the many surveys of the most desirable places to visit, work and live. The future of mobility is inextricably linked to the future planning of cities and the infrastructure that connects them, whether across nations or continents
Opening image: Photo Mary Evans Picture Library